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The Australian 10/12/07

ALEXANDER Downer has confirmed in startling fashion what voters instinctively knew on November 24; that after almost 12 years John Howard had run out of both energy and ideas. And what's more, his senior ministers knew it.

But what will outrage those who believed the government might have survived under a Peter Costello prime ministership is that Howard also knew that he was running on empty, but decided to stay on anyway, wilfully consigning the Coalition to what could be a decade in the political wilderness.

And the reason Howard chose this road to the abyss? In a verdict that will frame the 2007 defeat as the ultimate act of indulgence on Howard's part, Downer says it was because those Costello supporters agitating for change in late 2006 were "f...ing rude" to the former prime minister.

BBI: That`s it. Howard would have gone but people were rude to him. So he stayed. So there!

The sources relayed the content of the Downer speech with the former foreign minister dating the moment when he realised the government was probably finished to a conversation with Howard in the year before the election. "Longevity in office is more than just people getting tired of you," Downer said. "There was an occasion when I was chatting to John Howard in the last year and (I) said, 'We need a new crusade, we need to be out there fighting for something new.'

"He said: 'Well we've done all the things that we really wanted to do'." .....

According to Downer, it was Howard's intention to hand over to Costello in 2006, until he felt pressured to do so by the treasurer's supporters. "If after the 2004 election, all of the Costello team would have just said, 'Howard's done well, he's won the 2004 election, we'll just wait till he hands over', then John Howard would have handed over at the end of last year.

BBI: Catch 22?

Howard then snookered his cabinet with an audacious declaration that ensured he would stay on. Downer described Howard's view thus: "Well of course if you all tell me I've got to go, I'll say, 'You told me I've got to go, and I'll go'. But I will say that I was forced out."

BBI: Howard put himself before his country, his party ans his electorate. And he paid the price.

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The Daily Telegraph 18/11/07

"JOHN Howard has reeled in Kevin Rudd's huge poll lead but Labor just has its nose in front going into the last week of the election."

"In a result that suggests the fight could go right down to the wire, an exclusive Galaxy Poll conducted for The Sunday Telegraph shows that, while the national swing has favoured Labor, in the key marginal seats that will decide the outcome the battle is much tighter. "

"National polls have shown an overall lead to the Opposition of around 10 per cent, two party preferred. But in the marginals it appears the Coalition has contained the swing against it to an average of 4.5 per cent. "

BBI: A Galaxy Poll eh? And have a look at Sky polling too. We think you are having a lend of the Liberal Party Glen. Its too late to suck up. Howard is gone and Costello is not popular with his "team mates". You might have to start cultivating a whole new set of friends.

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The Australian 12/11/07

"IN light of economic developments in the US, the question must be asked: what if the fundamentals that should be driving this federal election campaign have been fundamentally miscast? What if Peter Costello is not playing Henny Penny? What if he's telling the truth?"

"The Treasurer was at it again on Friday: "Well, I have been warning about the fallout from the US sub-prime," he told reporters. .."

"The charge against Costello is that he can't be believed because he's transparently using the US sub-prime crisis to whip up an economic bogyman sufficient to scare the wits out of an electorate seriously looking at the option of replacing him with Labor's Wayne Swan. "

"You know the drill: in difficult economic times, abide with the economic managers who have the proven experience to handle the trouble ahead. The fact that this message is so obviously not cutting through is not just the media's fault. The Coalition itself bears much of the responsibility. "

"Having decided to stick around against good advice, this is very much John Howard's campaign and he began it with all the sunny optimism of the Disney Channel. "

"Go for Growth was the Prime Minister's preferred slogan, plastered across the hyper-blue (no clouds in this sky) backdrop that accompanied him wherever he went. "

BBI: Glen, a big fan of Costello, puts the boot into Howard. The coalition message is confused. Well. we knew that, but Glen omits to mention that Costello said some 6 weeks ago "Interest rates won`t go up." So its not just Howard who is wrong, it is Costello as well.

"Campaigns are potentially destroyed by internal contradictions, and this one was a doozy. And in terms of the campaign, it's been this strategic gear-grinding that's dominated analysis, to the detriment of any examination of the fundamentals..."

"Look up. That sound you hear may just be the sky falling. The question on November 24 for Australia is who will be there to catch it?"

BBI: When will some journo tackle Costello and Howard for their economic irresponsibility? Ross Gittens has a go, but most merely write about some slip of the tongue, rather that what is really happening.

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The Australian 5/11/07

"THIS is audacity defined. John Howard is signalling he will use an interest rate rise - that's right, a rate rise - to finally fashion the decisive message on economic management that he has been unable to sustain so far in an election fast slipping through his fingers."

"It is also the politics of inversion that Howard perfected in 2004. It worked against Mark Latham. The question for the remaining three weeks to polling day is will it work against Kevin Rudd, a very different proposition. "

"In 2004, Howard, under siege on issues of trust primarily surrounding "children overboard" and the Iraq war, turned the question on its head with his famous (and depending on this election result perhaps ultimately infamous) declaration: "Who do you trust to keep interest rates low?" "

BBI: We still shudder at the memory of John Howard`s opening speech in 2004 where he talked about trust just as he had been exposed as being untruthful about "children overboard". The temerity of the man! Thankfully, if the polls are right, he has finally been caught up with.

"The difficulty here is that Howard's message is in both cruise control and reverse gear at the same time, not an easy way to try to reassure voters about the ride into the future."

BBI: Just as he is with foot on the pedal tax cuts and foot on the brake interest rates.

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The Australian 29/10/07

"THAT bastard Turnbull," declared one of Kevin Rudd's brains trust yesterday, his words wet with enough sarcasm to add to rising sea levels. "Can you believe him shifting the debate to climate change at this stage of the campaign?"

BBI: You`ve got to hand it to Glen. Writing a similar article to the one in yesterday`s Telly, and presumably getting paid twice. No wonder he is a Howard fan. Well, Costello fan really, but Howard`s ideologies.

"Howard now finds himself like Paul Keating who, at the 1996 election, ran on leadership because it was the only thing he had left. The economy is Howard's last card, and even its viability is now increasingly marginal given the state of interest rate play."

BBI: Glen ponders whether Malcolm leaked the report (of his Kyoto difference with Howard) then decides it failed the self-interest test. Then uses this against Malcolm.

"...he then went on Sky News - in an interview meant to stop the haemorrhaging - only to clearly signal he had a personal view that differed from the Government's. Cabinet solidarity dictates you have no personal views. "

"It was a shambles which underscores a more fundamental point: that Turnbull, who's undoubtedly smart, thoughtful and committed, just might not have the political skills to justify his fast-track elevation within the Government. If such political weaknesses exist, election campaigns will almost certainly expose them. "

"Turnbull has faced three major tests in his public life. The first was the republic, a disaster that set the cause back a generation. The second was to prevail for the Coalition on climate change. Labor has established a clear ascendancy. And the third concerned Howard's leadership. Having concluded along with Howard's other major ally, Alexander Downer, that a majority of cabinet wanted the Prime Minister gone at the time of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit, Turnbull should have made it happen. It didn't. "

"The present debacle on climate change is bad enough. But if the election finishes up where it's clearly headed now, it's the third of these failures for which Howard might most resent Turnbull."

BBI: So if Malcolm didn`t leak, who did? Maybe someone who knows Howard is finished, but who wants the leadership, and needs to knockout Malcolm. Who can that be? And which journos would support such a person? Hmm.

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The Daily Telegraph 28/10/07

"THE Coalition's shaky election campaign was in danger of running off the rails last night with revelations of a serious split in Cabinet on the critical issue of climate change."

"In a gift to Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd, Prime Minister John Howard and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull refused to deny reports that Mr Turnbull had made a desperate attempt only six weeks ago to change Mr Howard's mind on climate change."

BBI: Glen, who is a well-known supporter of Peter Costello, is sinking Howard while trying to put the boot into Turnbull.

"The Coalition's problems were compounded later on Sky Television, where Mr Turnbull left little doubt his personal view on signing up to Kyoto differed from the Government's. "

"Angry Liberal colleagues immediately accused Mr Turnbull of jettisoning the Government's position in order to save his marginal - and green - Sydney seat of Wentworth. "

"One minister said Mr Turnbull was not a team player and described him as being "desperate'' about his prospects in Wentworth. "

"Mr Turnbull has been under pressure in his seat not only on climate change but also over his recent approval of a large paper pulp mill in Tasmania. "..

"Mr Turnbull denied leaking the story. But that won't stop his internal critics claiming he is selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat and a possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello by painting himself as pro-Kyoto in opposition to Mr Howard's position."

BBI: Glen then points the finger at Malcolm in the middle quoting a Facebook site called "Malcolm Turnbull for PM". (Incidentally, for those who don`t know, there are a number of anti-Howard sites on Facebook. Join, then type Howard in search.) But Glen is a bit worried that Malcolm might displace Peter as the next leader. The Libs certainly can`t wait to get rid of Howard.

"Other signs are also emerging in the Liberal camp suggesting MPs have lost confidence in the Prime Minister. Candidates are now airbrushing Mr Howard out of their campaigns in a move one observer described as "Howard Overboard''."

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The Daily Telegraph 28/10/07

BBI: Glen has appeared to give up on a Liberal win.

"SOMEBODY may as well say it, because the ever-so-strategic Kevin Rudd won't. This election is now Labor's to lose. And he knows it."

"Everything is now going Rudd's way: campaign momentum, the Great Debate worm, the mood for change. "

"And, of course, interest rates are too, although he couldn't possibly admit to that either. ..."

"So while the average CPI since 2004 has been three per cent, fruit and vegetables have jumped more than four times that - 13.5 per cent a year."

"Petrol was double at 7.7 per cent, secondary education 7.5 per cent and sewerage 6.3 per cent. "

BBI: Glen has surrendered. He`s made some good points though. He can`t quite bring himself to say that Howard is an economic dud, but we get the picture. Though he finishes with a bit of sour grapes ( there`s a lot of that around at the moment)... Quoting Wayne Swan..

"And if you've got some shopping tips send them to Kevin07, we want to know what you've got to say.''

"He'll have to do better than that as Treasurer. Which, on present trends, is exactly what Swan might be in a little over three weeks' time. "

BBI: Never mind Glen, its just that the worm has turned.

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The Australian 25/10/07

BBI: Under the banner "Nine`s complaint is pure spin" Glen tackles the worm issue. But not really. He tells us of how the NPC (National Press Club) stood up to the might of China over a photo of the Dalai Lama, then proceeds to bucket Laurie Oakes over an incident in 1990.

"The role of the National Press Club can be argued about, and should be argued about. But ultimately it's the only institution in Australia that provides weekly televised forums for prominent national and international figures to have a direct conversation with the Australian people."

BBI: Glenn goes all pro democracy on us, then says there must be some rules. No comments about who instigated the pulling of the plug. He certainly didn`t deny that he did it so where does that leave us. We suspect this is a guilty plea wrapped in a "but we have to have rules" cloak.

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The Australian 22/10/07

BBI: Under the heading "The spill that could sink Rudd" Glen has a look at the seat of Corio.

"FOR those who think Kevin Rudd will win this election based on the national swing as registered in the published opinion polls, here's some mail: the Liberal Party intends preferencing Gavan O'Connor in the seat of Corio."

"If ever you needed evidence that, while the polls reflect a national mood for change, this election will still be fought out in the trenches, seat by muddy seat, Corio is it. "

BBI: O`Connor is unhappy, much the same way Peter King was when Turnbull replaced him. If O`Connor managed to be the point where the ALP lost, he would become the most hated man in Australia, but luckily that is unlikely. But his standing gives the conservatives a chance to say some nasty things.

"More in sorrow than anger, the silvering O'Connor accused the Labor Party of rampant branch stacking, illicit fundraising, money laundering and grubby dealings with property developers."

BBI: We don`t believe that more in sorrow bit, Glen. O`Connor is in a self-delusional snit! Who has been in his ear?

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The Australian 1/10/07

"IT'S as certain as a curtain call at any performance of Keating: The Musical. The arts community, or at least its most vocal members, will once again line up to support Labor at the forthcoming election. Already David Williamson is ruminating about another reprise of Don's Party, presumably with a different ending."

BBI: But Glen disagrees. Labor do not "own arts" now that George Brandis is the Liberal Minister. (That`s Brandis of the "lying rodent" fame. See, George can be spot-on, but unfortunately not on record.)

"George Brandis is Howard's Arts Minister. He is one of the civilising influences on politics in Canberra, while also being one of its most effective operators. Brandis languished for years before becoming a minister, punishment by the Prime Minister for his support of Peter Costello. In the end, ability won out and Howard, recognising that he was in for the electoral fight of his life, finally promoted Brandis."

BBI: Glen quotes extensively from a Brandis speech..

"So why then, Brandis asked, does the Left continue to propagate the myth of the Right as cultural barbarians?"

BBI: Then he shows that Brandis is really arty because...

"Brandis ended his National Press Club speech with a reference to Oscar Wilde's essay, The Soul of Man Under Socialism, in which Wilde defined art as "the most intense mood of individualism the world has ever known"."..

"And here's where he gets to the point. Much of the arts community's anti-Coalition political positioning is simply a cypher for other things: children overboard, the Iraq war, indigenous intervention, climate change. If artistic truth really does matter in the upcoming election, the sector deserves better than to be reduced in the hands of people such as Keating to yet another manifestation of Howard hating, albeit dressed in the finery of Lorenzo de Medici."

BBI: That`s alright then, the "arty folk" can vote Tory provided they can get over children overboard, the Iraq war, indigenous intervention, climate change. But who can get over those things?

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From The Australian 17/09/07

BBI: Bloody Hell! Yesterday in the Telegraph (see below) he was anti Howard, today he`s finding ways for Howard to win. He talks of Frank Lutz, "distinguished US Republican-aligned pollster`s" findings of not hate for Howard, merely indifference.

"In other words, while voters are letting go of Howard and preparing to embrace Rudd, it is a long and reluctant goodbye. You get the feeling that they could run back to make it all good again at any moment. "

"In pollster talk, support for Rudd and Labor is soft, something the Government keeps whispering is coming through in its research. "

BBI: He tells us of how the conservatives won in Ireland against another "me too" party. Then finishes withh this. Who is he going for?

"If you're offering the 'same, only different', you should not be surprised that people opt to leave out the 'different' bit." "

"That bit would be Rudd. Oh, and the swing back came in the last week."

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From The Daily Telegraph 16/09/07

BBI: Glen comes out and shows he is no longer a Howard man. (Rats and sinking ships?)

"THE attempt by John Howard to suddenly embrace Peter Costello in a bizarre duumvirate is a concession of fundamental personal and political weakness."

"And it will most likely fail. "

BBI: He compares this with a failed Labor strategy, "The Whitlam-HaydenPlan"

"If the Government loses, Howard will have effectively hog-tied Costello to the defeat. The putative Opposition leader would emerge from the other side of an election loss as damaged goods. "

"It's a measure of how twisted the politics of Liberal leadership has become that some Coalition MPs were suggesting last week that this may have been the intent of Howard's strategy. "..

"And the brutal fact is that when the Liberal campaign launch takes place, there'll be only one leader delivering the re-election speech. It will be Howard - and that's the Government's problem."

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From the Daily Telegraph 9/09/07

BBI: Glen damns Howard with faint praise then decides he should go. We think that`s what he means, anyway.

"AS John Howard considers his political future yet again, a bizarre, twilight-like resignation has settled on the Government. In this political half-light, no one is sure of the next move."..

"All Costello can do is wait - and over in the Howard camp, senior ministers can do little else. If Howard is to come to a realisation that he cannot win the election, these ministers want him to arrive at that conclusion on his own. "

"They hold him in too much esteem to do otherwise. No one wants to rub the Prime Minister's nose in this brutal outlook. "

BBI: Now he has a bob each way when he says...

"Howard has had a good APEC. He has acted as a security bridge between the global superpowers, the US and China, and enhanced bilateral relations with both."

BBI: He talks of how there is a lot of unrest from previous Howard fans who say..

"These ministers have already identified the central flaw in Howard's defence of his position, that the party must stick with him for two contradictory reasons: that he could still win, and that if he loses, he must bear the responsibility. "

"Translated, this means the party must stick with him whatever the consequences. And however he decides to dress it up in the aura of a captain going down with his ship, the fact is he won't endure those consequences."

BBI: We think he has deserted Howard when he finishes with..

One minister sneered at a private observation by one of his colleagues that Howard, like Hitler in 1945, was in a state of delusion, trying to deny the Russians were on the outskirts of Berlin.
"On the outskirts?'' he scoffed. "They're already at the Reichstag!''
"Those of you familiar with the geography of Berlin will know exactly the import of that remark.

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