peter hartcher

howard adds new concept in evasiveness

SMH 8/11/07

THE main problem with John Howard's election campaign so far is that he is convincingly offering only one thing - more of the same.

And a survey of the horizon shows there are more rate rises to come, stretching as far as the futures market's eye can see.

Howard deserves some punishment. He made a promise in 2004 that he knew he could not keep; he aggravated the problem by pumping more tax cuts and spending into the economy; and he is still trying to pretend that he is a superior economic manager.

And this latest rise, two weeks from polling day, cannot be good for his election prospects.

Howard has tried to talk his way out of it. He even invented a new concept in evasiveness yesterday to add to his other creations, the "non-core" promise and the "two-night" promise. Asked if he should be accountable for his 2004 pledge to keep rates at record lows, he said voters shouldn't look at every one of his utterances but only at the "aggregate impression" of what he had said.

And the "aggregate impression" of his last campaign, Howard said, was that rates would always be higher under Labor.

And Labor's wages policy is no longer inflationary. Howard claimed yesterday that Labor would reintroduce pattern bargaining, allowing a wage rise in one firm to be applied automatically to others.

But this is another false claim by Howard. Labor is the party that first broke the pattern when it introduced enterprise bargaining in 1993. And its new industrial relations policy specifically prohibits pattern bargaining.

This is the line that the Coalition is running in its new anti-Labor attack ad. It is not true - average mortgage rates were higher in the Fraser years than in the Whitlam years, for instance.

look at me tactics give pm hope

SMH 19/10/07

John Howard's opening moves in the 2007 election campaign were not so much about putting specific proposals as they were about getting attention.

Consider the staccato - three big, jolting "Hey, Martha" moments that were guaranteed to get maximum media coverage.

Last Thursday Howard took the podium and amazed many Australians by declaring, if not in so many words, "Look everyone, I've changed my mind on Aboriginal reconciliation!"

On Sunday he made the much-anticipated drive to Yarralumla and then held a news conference to say "Look everyone, I've called an election!"

"Look everyone," the Prime Minister practically shouted, "I am offering lots of good things!" And there was also the subtext: "Look everyone, I can even work with Peter Costello!"

Why? Because the nation has shown every evidence in the past year of closing its collective ear to our second-longest serving prime minister. Nothing he has said, or done, this year has made the slightest difference to his Government's standing in the polls, which has been dire.

last minute change of heart

SMH 12/10/07

BBI: The full heading is "Last minute change of heart in the face of annihilation."

"JOHN HOWARD avowed last night that his new thinking on Aboriginal reconciliation was not a Damascus Road conversion. He's right. It's a deathbed conversion."...

"By promising a referendum to add a "statement of reconciliation" to the preamble of the constitution, Howard is offering a purely symbolic act."

"And he is offering it very abruptly. This idea was not discussed in any cabinet meeting or developed in any of the processes of government but was arrived at within the Howard office in very recent days."...

"These are the political intents behind the Howard move. But how has Howard himself explained this uncharacteristic change of heart?"

"He tells us that "the Australian people want to move". Yet when hundreds of thousands of them did move, marching for reconciliation in 2000, Howard dismissed this as a mere gesture. While Costello marched, Howard stayed home"....

"But the one-minute-to-midnight urgency of the change suggests something more. Howard tolerated with equanimity Aboriginal activists turning their backs on him, but now it seems the broader electorate is turning its back, Howard is seeking an urgent reconciliation."

pulp fiction a balm for voters

SMH 5/10/07

It could not have been a pleasant duty yesterday for Malcolm Turnbull to announce final federal approval for the Gunns pulp mill, and it could not have been a pleasant duty for Peter Garrett to publicly defend him.

The $2 billion project is economically viable only because of state and federal government subsidies worth $847 million over the life of the mill, according to a cost-benefit analysis commissioned by the Tasmanian Roundtable for Sustainable Industries....

John Gay,(Managing director, Gunns) when asked in a TV interview what he thought about protected species dying for his business, replied: "Well, there's too many of them and we need to keep them at a reasonable level," reported The Monthly magazine.

Yet this is the firm that Turnbull has approved to build a mill that threatens endangered and protected species including the Tasmanian wedge-tailed eagle, the white-bellied sea eagle, the Tasmanian devil, the Southern bell frog and a brace of others.

..can Gunns really be expected to make all efforts in good faith to observe conditions, such as the one that "noise-generating activities must stop if a whale, seal or dolphin approaches within defined safety zones"?

rudd offers a cheeky lesson in soft power

smh 7/9/07

BBI: Hartcher is talking about Rudd`s meeting with Dubya, yesterday and comparing the USA approach to that of China..

"What is soft power? It's a nation's ability to exert influence through co-option rather than coercion. It's the power of attraction."......

"When Bush speaks, he hurls thunderbolts and lightning about the war on terror. He urges Australians to stand with him and fight. He offers improved access to US defence technology. He visits a naval base on Garden Island and rallies the troops."

"Hu Jintao arrived in Australia and went immediately to Western Australia to tour mining sites. Then he crossed to Gundaroo to inspect a sheep station. Next he signed a deal to buy LNG from Australia in a contract worth up to $35 billion. He and John Howard agree to elevate contact to include an annual strategic dialogue. And he hands over two prized pandas to Adelaide Zoo".

BBI: He goes on comparing how we (Australians) feel toward different countries and quotes the Lowy Institutes thermometer. We are feel as good about USA as we do for Vietnam, just slightly above how we feel for China. We rate...

"....US at 60 degrees, well below New Zealand's 81 and Britain's 75, but also below Singapore's 64 and Japan's 63."...

"How warmly did we rate China? At 56 degrees, not far off. Again, considering that China operates a repressive dictatorship and has an alien culture, this is extraordinary."..

"The moral of the tale is that warmth can succeed where force does not. Or, to reconceptualise the tale, that soft power can be more potent than hard."

Peter Hartcher is the Herald's international editor.

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