notes from sydney- special correspondentFederal Election News. These notes are a day to day observation from a well placed source in Sydney. The author wishes to remain anonymous. Suffice to say he has a lot of political nous and connections. Latest news is posted at the top of the column. To read in order, go to the bottom of the page or click on any story. The Gift that keeps on giving the gift that keeps on giving 23/11/07How magnificently ironic and appropriate it is that the final blow to Howard'sPrime Ministership has been delivered by his own race card. There I was saying the campaign had become dull. I apologise for getting it so wrong. This campaign is the gift that keeps on giving. Where to start with that pamphlet? Is it the way ugly racism blew up in the faces of the perpetrators? Is it the involvement of a senior member of Howard's own right wing faction of the NSW Libs? Is it the direct connection to Jackie Kelly? This is all so richly deserved for Howard. As Keating so eloquently put it yesterday - "If the Prime Minister cannot be believed, who in the political system can be believed?" Howard has eroded the morality of government in Australia. His decisionshave been calculated by party political advantage above all else. And the only politics he knows is the politics of division. In many ways Jackie Kelly has been the poster girl of this approach. The appeals to Howard's Battlers have all been pitched at self-interest and fear. A belief that the only way to advance is at the expense of others. Howard has a fundamentally cheap view of humanity and as a result can only appeal to our lesser side. He is a straightener of life, not an enlarger. That wretched, nasty pamphlet could do him untold damage on Saturday. It has overwhelmed his last chance to convince the undecided he really has a vision for the future. Before this turn of events I would have tipped Rudd to pick up 20 seats.Now there are probably another 8 - 10 seats on margins of 6-10% that are within his grasp. In most cases this is not because of the racisim in that pamphlet. Rather it is because the episode confirms to the undecided that Howard is out of ideas for the future and is driven only by a desperate desire to hold office. The 3 seats where the racist side of it will resonate are all in Sydney -Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney. I didn't count any of these in my original 20. But the crass racism of the pamphlet will eat further into the Liberal base here. It is the supreme irony of the affair that it may well ensure Howard loses his own seat. At the conclusion of this blog, and in the circumstances of the day, you will have to forgive me for coming over all grandiose and quoting Shakespeare. "There is a tide in the affairs of men, A king tide is upon us, and Australia is set to sail. Labor to pick up 24 seats. two more sleeps 22/11/07As predicted the claims of thirteen Labor candidates being ineligible disintegrated today as the flimsy basis of the allegations were revealed. Howard has no momentum at all. The television and radio advertising ban has now kicked in. But Labor's internet advertising will continue. It will be interesting to see if the Howard campaign has a response to this, or have they been blindsided here? They apparently plan a deluge of phone calls to marginal seats with a pre-recorded message. It is hard to see this going down well given the universally low opinion of tele marketing. But he has to try something. The last week of this campaign is proving to be a non-event. And Rudd remains on track for a convincing victory. desperation takes hold 21/11/07You have to hand it to the Howard team. Their claim today that thirteen Labor candidates may be ineligible for election is breathtakingly brazen. It appears to be based on nothing more than a Google search on which Labor candidates held a remunerated public office immediately prior to nominating. They have produced nothing to substantiate the claim other than the questions previously raised about George Newhouse in Wentworth. It is a desperate attempt to dent Rudd's credibility and to draw him away from positive messages into a nasty slanging match. It will fail on all counts. Rudd's team will easily close the story down. The positive approach is working for Rudd. He is demonstrating the poise of a leader. As I have commented before, in this campaign he is behaving like a Prime Minister. Howard is increasingly playing the role of a desperate challenger. The closing days of electronic advertising have been telling. Rudd's black and white ad is powerful. A simple recital of policy initiatives contrasted with Howard's negativity. And it is as powerful on the internet as on television. The Liberal attack ads look cliched and dated in comparison. And they are not a presence on the internet. Howard is flailing about like a drowning man. howard has faith in the west 20/11/07Howard is counting on gaining seats in WA to keep him in contention. And not surprisingly. This is one part of the country where Workchoices won't be having much impact. The mining boom means people wouldn't have to be overly worried over job security, and the tight labour market is good for wages growth too. The whole Brian Burke saga and the coverage of Kevin Reynolds can't have helped matters either. Rudd's focus is Victoria. It seems line-ball as to whether the swing there will be big enough to move a few seats. But there is continuing confidence about strong gains in Queensland, NSW, SA and Tasmania. I will stick my neck out with state by state predictions before the end of the week, but at this stage it is a simple fact that WA is not enough to save Howard. His public prediction of seat gains there are directed at his own team in an attempt to hold them together for another week - and he may not succeed in that. The front page of the Tele on Monday reported discontent and division in the Government about the running of the campaign. Stories like that in the last week of a campaign could cost him another six seats if he can't steady the ship. Howard's other problem is that the general news environment continues to be poor for him. International reports on climate change. Reports about the housing affordability crisis and increasing loan defaults. Reserve Bank warnings about inflation. Auditor General reports about rorted grant schemes. All of this is helping to create an environment for change. Four more sleeps. five more sleeps 19/11/07Rudd's appearance on Rove really paid off for him. He looked nervous but did demonstrate a nerdy sense of humour, an ability to take the piss and a personability that contrasts strikingly with grumpy old grandpa Howard. Howard enters the final week with a policy announcement to control welfare payments to "drug addicts" in some way. Call me odd, but I would prefer to see some of my taxes go in welfare to junkies rather than having to change my locks and replace the DVD player on a regular basis. And I don't think I'm on my own there. This is yet another sign of desperation that will do Howard little good. Of interest this week will be the seats the leaders choose to campaign in. Howard appeared to spend the weekend in Bennelong attending Chinese and Korean community functions. Times are indeed desperate for him. My tip is Howard will hold his own seat. It is a very big call to vote against your local member when he is the incumbent Prime Minister. But that will be Howard's only victory on Saturday night. are we there yet? 15/11/07This election campaign is beginning to drag a bit. Let's face it, we know the outcome already. Today there was an underwhelming debate between Alexander Downer and Robert McLelland. The resignation of defeat was written all over Downer's face. The only interesting part of the exchange was when Downer was challenged to match Rudd's skills in Mandarin with his own in French. He obliged eventually, and the translation of what he said is -" It`s true that I speak French, but, so I`m the minister for foreign Affairs of Australia, and one should speak English if you are Australian". It reminds me of a particularly unattractive skinhead I once saw walking down the street wearing a shirt that said "Speak English or die". Even in its dull moments Howard and his colleagues can find a way to remind us in this campaign of how ugly they really are and how desperate is our need for change. Nine more sleeps to go. rudd turns for home 14/11/07We live in momentous times. It is not every day the Principal of Kings School is on the front page of the Australian endorsing Labor's approach on education. In fact I still find I'm having to pinch myself to make sure it was not all some sort of weird dream sequence. Howard's pathetic attempt at a wedge on private schools was killed without Rudd having to utter a word. As expected Rudd did not match Howard's $9 billion splurge at his launch. In refusing to do so he underlined the strength of his position and hammered the point that Howard is becoming increasingly desperate in pusuit of re-election. Rudd extended his plans on education and climate change with proposals that are powerful because of their innovation - not because of their cost. The finish line is in site for him now. The focus of his team will be in maintaining discipline. It is still easy to stumble, and perhaps even more so if too many candidates think it is already in the bag. My tip is that Rudd and his team have the composure to see this through all the way to a crushing victory. the wedge won`t work 13/11/07When he wasn't fending off interest rate concerns today, Howard spent his time trying to wedge Rudd on the old private versus public school debate. He highlighted that his proposed education tax deductions could be applied to private school fees, whereas Rudd's could not. A clumsy attempt to claim Rudd and Labor are biased against private schools. This was of course the mighty wedge that secured Menzies re-election in 1963, and also played a supporting part for Howard in 2004. Unlike Latham, Rudd will easily escape this trap. Unfortunately he will probably do it by matching Howard's promise. The only other point of interest on a quiet day was Howard's declaration that, if re-elected, he would serve at least another eighteen months as PM. Or maybe two years. Rudd's focus is increasingly turning to this issue, and for good reason. It highlights that a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello as well. It is an incredibly weak position for any leader going into an election. To ask for people's trust without any commitment to serve a full term is a big call. Particularly for someone who is already so clearly unworthy of trust. And the ridiculous part of it all is that what Howard thinks about how long he will serve as PM is irrelevant. Even if he pulled off an impossible victory he would be lucky if his colleagues tolerated him for another eighteen days, let alone months. His leadership is long dead. Tomorrow it's over to Rudd again. howard plays catch-up penultimate week 12/11/07Howard's campaign launch today told the story of just how far he is behind in this campaign much more eloquently than any set of polling numbers. His headline announcements were on education, childcare and housing affordability. Exactly where Rudd wants to fight this campaign. He has set the agenda and has the initiative on all these issues. This may well have been Howard's last big set-piece opportunity in the campaign. And he had to use it to respond to Rudd. He has been blown out of the water. Go For Growth was his slogan. But the rate rise last week forced Howard to hide it, choosing instead to stand in front of an Australian flag. And today the Reserve Bank issued another warning about inflationary pressure and more rate rises. The entire theme of his campaign has been undermined. Howard was forced into the unfamiliar position of not highlighting the cost of his promises today. The fistful of dollars has become a negative for him. Rudd now has the luxury of watching the reaction to Howard's launch for a full day while he fine-tunes the detail of his own. His ascendancy continues to gain pace. He now has clear air and the perfect oppurtunity to underline his key theme - New Leadership. He doesn't need big spending announcements and will highlight the absence of them as responsible national leadership. How will the Howard cheer squad try to maintain faith in an improbable victory? Expect to hear lots about undecided voters, flaws in the polling, Howard doing really well in the seats that matter and endless variations of all the above. Believe none of it. D Day is approaching, and Howard is shivering in a trench waiting for the invasion to burst ashore. Nothing can save him now. howard`s sorry business 8/11/07Howard's day seemed to focus on a single word - sorry. Ironic really, given his inability to say it on a single occasion in eleven and a half years to Aboriginal Australians. He reluctantly said it yesterday in an effort to appear concerned about the impact of yet another rate rise. And he is clearly so unfamiliar with the word that he looked completely unconvincing in using it. The front page of the Tele nailed him today. NOT AS SORRY AS WE ARE screamed the headline. And then Howard went and made it even worse. He explained to a bemused group of journalists that saying sorry was different to apologising, and that in fact he had not apologised for the rate rise. This man has debased the language for as long as he has been in public office. His dissembling and calculated deceptions. His evasive and tortured expression. What sweet justice it would be if that single simple and powerful word delivers the final blow to his campaign. What he revealed today, for those who had still not worked it out, is that even when he does say sorry, it is only an expression of pity. It does not mean he accepts any responsibility for it. How will people view that, from a man who is our second longest serving Prime Minister? Maybe there is clue in one of the comments on Howard's dissembling reported on the News limited website today. Andrew commented, "I once had a girlfriend who used the same argument. She'd apologised for a certain incident, then later claimed she was actually apologising for the effect the action had on me rather than the action itself. We broke up." Johnny, you are so dropped. Sorry. the reserve does its thing 7/11/07After all the discussion, analysis and positioning in advance, the actual announcement of a rate rise was anti-climactic. Howard's explanations were tired. And he again chose to dissemble about what was actually promised in 2004. Continuing to try and re-define his way out of responsibility undermines his effort to appear empathetic to the people at the sharp end of rate rises. And talking about what the interest rate was in 1987 doesn't resonate in 2007. Introducing Workchoices into the argument is just plain confusing to most people I suspect. Rudd used the opportunity to target some key vulnerabilities. Essentially, Howard breaks promises and refuses to admit it. Just another gift really. Barring some almost apocalyptic event, the issues and agenda of the national campaign have now been fully defined. And Rudd has clearly had the better of it. He has demonstrated the ability and the authority required to fight the campaign at his own pace and on his own terms. His messages have been positive and forward-looking. Howard started with the big tax bribes and then launched into a series of attempts to attack Rudd's credibility. None of it has given him the momentum required to bridge the gap in the polls. His only hope now is that local campaigning can nullify the national swing in enough seats to prevent a Labor victory. Sixteen is still a big number to win. But Rudd is campaigning aggressively in seats with seemingly comfortable Coalition margins. It is a sign of confidence in the mood for change. And he also has the advantage of Howard being under enormous pressure on his own patch. Howard wanted the economy to be front and centre in this campaign. Today the Reserve Bank made sure that is the case. But far from delivering him the paddle he was hoping for, it has knocked another hole in Howard's boat. And he still finds himself in the upper reaches of that infamously unpleasant creek. efficient does it for rudd 6/11/07Last week I said luck was running strongly for Rudd, and that his tip for the Melbourne Cup would be worth a bet. Even after his original was scratched he came up trumps. Although needless to say I didn't follow my own advice. And was that the esteemed visage of Mungo MacCallum pictured with Rudd today at Ballina RSL? I'm sure he had more sense with his money than me. The footage of Rudd celebrating Efficient's win - beer in hand - will delight his campaign team. It counters the geeky image that might still be a reservation for some voters. Remember, the whole Scores thing didn't exactly do him any harm. Luck continues to follow Rudd, and it is as important as anything else in a campaign. It is pretty hard to win one without it. Despite all the headlines, the Newspoll this morning shows the continuing strength of Rudd's position. Time is really running out for Howard to bridge the gap and the reserve Bank seem unlikely to help him tomorrow. He is likely to be kept very firmly on the back foot. Can he get out of this one? garrett stumbles but rudd still looking strong-week fourGarrett's stumble was an extraordinary act of ill-discipline. I'm sure many die-hard Labor supporters hope he was speaking the truth, but scaring the horses is not what is needed now. (And that fills my quota of gratuitous Melbourne Cup week puns.) Revelations from the ABC gardening expert, Peter Cundall, that Malcolm Turnbull confessed a dislike of the pulp mill to him don't rate on quite the same scale. Although Labor will be happy for any continuing attention on Turnbull. It can serve to remind voters of growing disunity in Howard's team. And it continues a strong contribution from the ABC. The weatherman is running against Hockey, the former star journalist against Howard, and now even the gardener is having a crack. It must be the sports department's turn next. In any event all of this will be swamped by interest rates this week. Howard's attempts at repositioning have continued in recent days. But explaining that inflationary pressure is inevitable in a booming economy is not really going to help him much. It again undermines the credibility of his promise from 2004. Why did he promise to keep interest rates at record lows if he knew the risk he may not be able to deliver? His problem is most voters know the answer to that question. And it will continue to be in the spotlight. Rudd has positioned himself well. His announcement of tax breaks for first home buyers saving for a deposit is practical and innovative. It again shows him looking forward while Howard is tangled up trying to explain the past. Rudd has the opportunity this week to reinforce his strong position. Howard will just be focussed on not falling further behind. He wants to maintain some hope of being able to catch up in the last two weeks. abbott bad for howard`s health 2/11/07Another day lost for Howard. His time is starting to run out. The detail of his health announcement wasn't too bad - not that anyone would know. It has been swamped completely by Abbott's mindless ill-discipline and aggression. Howard was forced to spend the day defending his Health Minister. And when he wasn't doing that he was trying to explain away the inevitable debacle his politically motivated decision to take over a Tasmanian hospital has become. Nurses at the Mersey Hospital aren't too keen on Commonwealth control if it means they become subjected to Workchoices. And fair enough too. Meanwhile Rudd got to act like a Prime Minister. He jumped on a story that part of the Kokoda Track might be destroyed by a mining development - expressing outrage and saying he would be conveying his concerns to the PNG Prime Minister. Once again in this campaign a piece of pure gold has fallen into his lap. With luck running for him like this it will be worth watching his tip for the Melbourne Cup. I'll be backing it. And it will be interesting to see what impact the events of the last two days has on the next Newspoll. Their weekly sampling is happening right on the back of these events. Newspoll has been the only ray of hope for Howard this week. A downturn in his support next time around would ramp the pressure up on his campaign at a time when cracks have already started to appear. al qaeda plot revealed 1/11/07Howard biographer David Barnett has uncovered an Al Qaeda plot to secure a Rudd election victory. You can read his story here I take it from old Dave's photo that he is not too pleased at the prospect of a Howard defeat - it appears to be affecting his blood pressure. And no wonder. Apparently at this very moment Al Qaeda fighters are prowling the mountains of Afghanistan desperate to kill Australian soldiers before November 24. There is some serious disconnection from reality here. Tony Abbott didn't require any assistance from Al Qaeda in his efforts today. He tore across the national stage like a pit-bull off the leash. Abusing a dying man here, swearing at a Labor front bencher there. His late arrival at a live televised debate was farcical. Can the Howard campaign really be that disorganised? I suspect we may not see too much more of Tony for a while. He's back in the cage, chewing disconsolately on a few bones. Growling all the while. Howard must be aghast at the damage done to his campaign today. There is a continuing impression of his campaign that it is ill-disciplined and chaotic. The contrast with the Rudd campaign will be impressing itself sharply with any remaining undecided voters. And please, if you are the praying type, throw one in for David Barnett. He clearly needs help. kyoto again 30/10/07Howard was able to capitalise today on some apparent differences between Garrett and Rudd on Kyoto. He will be happy to finally have something to fight back on. But his team must be disappointed in the Costello Swan debate. Costello failed to knock any holes in Labor's economic credentials. And for that reason alone it has to be marked as a win for Swan and Rudd. This is a significant opportunity lost for Howard. At this point in the campaign he and Rudd have fought each other to a standstill, but still with Rudd in a winning position. Howard needs the tempo of the campaign to accelerate now and he will be desperately looking for issues to draw Rudd into a head-on fight. Rudd's team will be looking to a slow and steady approach for the next few weeks. Enough announcements to keep momentum, and hopefully some more ill-discipline from Howard's team for them to capitalise on. Their focus will be on planning for the last week of the campaign. Big momentum in the last week could deliver a crushing victory. howard loses control 29/10/07Howard has been stopped in his tracks by the Kyoto leak. The issue continued to hound him today. His attempt to tough it out with Kerry O'Brien tonight made me cringe. It was almost cruel to watch. Finger pointing in the Liberal Party is clearly intensifying from today's reports. Panic is beginning to set in. And when Liberals start fighting it gets ugly very quickly. There are no rules of engagement. They put the Labor factions to shame. Howard appears suddenly powerless to control his own troops. In a twist of superb irony the only Government minister who looked calm and in control today was Costello. "I told you so" must be going through his mind occasionally. He has the chance tomorrow in the debate with Swan to regain momentum for the Government - or at least slow the Rudd juggernaut for a couple of days. Unless of course they are relying on Alexander Downer in his debate with Robert McClelland. but then no-one could be that crazy. The only thing Howard could really be counting in his favour is four more weeks to go. Four more weeks for some miracle to happen. What he will be dreading is four more weeks like today. week three, worrying signs for howard 28/10/07The last few days of the campaign have been relatively quiet in terms of announcements, with the exception being Rudd's $1 billion water plan today. Howard attempted some re-positioning on his interest rate promise from the last election. The essence of it, if I understand what he said, is that he might have said once that he would keep interest rates at record lows but it wasn't really a promise. And that the Liberal ads which said that only ran for two days. And anyway rates would be even higher now if Labor was Rudd jumped on that today to reinforce Howard's reputation as someone who doesn't keep his word. Expect plenty more of that. He is doing real damage to Howard here. And our favourite stooge, Glenn Milne, delivered a huge blow to Howard with his story today about splits in Cabinet over the Kyoto Protocol. Rumours about this story have been circulating for a week now. Many featured reports of colourful language from Malcolm Turnbull about what he clearly sees as the electoral stupidity of Howard on this issue. It is an extraordinary breach of discipline in a campaign. Any perception of disunity alarms voters. Howard would be seething. This builds on the disastrous stories during APEC about Howard's colleagues expressing the view that he should just go. You will recall that Turnbull was at the centre of that as well. The bottom line is this - Howard's leadership of his own party is dead regardless of the election outcome. It will take something extraordinary in the next week to put the Liberal's back in the game. keating 25/10/07Paul Keating burst back onto the scene today in launching Greg Combet's campaign. This is probably not something welcomed by the Rudd team because Keating remains an unpopular figure in the public mind. As an unashamed Keating admirer, the reasons for that unpopularity escape me. If there is a clearer thinker about Australian politics, or someone with a better record of economic reform, I am yet to meet them. You can listen to his comments here. It is easy to forget that the Hawke and Keating governments were able to achieve low inflation because of an agreement with the ACTU. It is an absolute antidote to the ridiculous scare campaign by Howard. What are the economic reforms Howard can point to? Introduction of the GST? What has that achieved? Compare that to the floating of the dollar. Deregulation of financial institutions. Lowering the tariff barriers. Introduction of employer contribution superannuation. Rudd will highlight none of this because it won't help him. He is already in a strong position and just needs to maintain his current settings. But on a slow day in the campaign forgive my indulgence in admiring the contribution of a genuine nation builder. back to the economy 24/10/07It is an article of faith amongst swinging voters that the Liberals are better managers of the economy than Labor. And the thing about faith is that it can be very resistant to argument and logic. Overturning, or at leat neutralising, that faith is the real Everest Rudd has to climb over the next four and a bit weeks. Logic would tell you that for a Government of 11 years standing today's inflation figures and a likely rate increase on November 7 are killer blows. But the truth is they may present Howard with his last opportunity to scrape back into office. The latest Newspoll gave Rudd a 16 point lead, but on the issue of economic management showed Howard was still 15 points in front. This is exactly the ground Howard wants to play on. He knows it well and the crowd are behind him. Could he pull it off? Rudd's argument today was good. Why won't they just take responsibility for once instead of shifting the blame? This repeats existing negative perceptions and has a bit of power. After 11 years in office how can Howard blame anyone else? Howard and Costello's attempts to suggest that winding back Workchoices would make the situation worse won't work for them. It will be seen as an attempt to shift blame. And they have lost the argument on Workchoices already. Are they suggesting you can't have fair workplaces without pushing up interest rates? They will need to come up with something better than that. As I said yesterday, the debate between Swan and Costello is potentially a very significant event in this campaign. Costello may not be popular, but he is an intelligent and eloquent politician who has the advantage of 11 years as Treasurer. Swan will need to perform extremely well to match him. The Howard team will be seeing this as a big opportunity to dent Labor's economic credentials. Rudd might have said he is a fiscal conservative so often that people believe him. But what about the team around him? That is the question Howard will seek to draw into focus now. topwhen dick met john 23/10/07As it turns out closing the Harbour Bridge so Dick Cheney could catch up with John and Janette was worth the inconvenience. It got David Hicks released. Is that the sound of chickens coming home to roost? Howard sent silly old Alexander Downer out to defend him today. But he will have difficult questions to answer for himself in the coming days, and I suspect his carefully crafted answers will sound less than convincing to many people. Rudd doesn't even need to do anything here. He can just sit back and watch it play out. Voter perceptions of Rudd and Howard are really being entrenched at this point in the campaign. Today's events will be important on November 24. Confirmation that the circumstances surrounding the incarceration of David Hicks were as politically corrupted as many suspected reinforce significant negative perceptions about Howard. Particularly that he is prepared to compromise Earlier in the day Howard was on radio denying he appeared cranky during Sunday's debate. Grumpy old grandpa. Meanwhile Rudd was on FM radio in Sydney. In the course of an on-air conversation with a talkback caller they worked out they were in fact third cousins through Rudd's father who was born in southern NSW. Little things like this are absolute gold in a campaign. Interesting side stories that give voters a personal and positive insight on a candidate can be very powerful. And he also had a another substantial announcement on childcare, with a plan to increase the qualified workforce and drive some improvements in the quality of care. Another powerful pitch to Howard's battlers. And plain sensible policy. Howard's announcement was increased cash payments to pensioners. Worthwhile but hardly innovative. More a band-aid than a plan for the future. And the intersting thing about it is why he felt the need to make a pitch to the group where his support is already strongest. Could the collapse in his base vote be so severe that he has to try and shore it up by handing out cash to pensioners? If that is the case then Newspoll's predicted landslide may well become reality. The only note of caution for the Rudd team should be on the Wayne Swan v Peter Costello debate next week. They won't want that to go awry and reignite any questions about economic credibility. week two, who pulled the worm? 22/10/07Wonderful to see one of the Byron Bay Institute's favourite stooges embroiled in the blue over who tried to pull Channel 9's coverage of the debate. Mr Milne appeared to be less than comfortable in the spotlight. (See notes on right, Mark Coultan`s article.) The only certainty out of all the finger pointing and accusations is that it will not reflect well on Howard. The take home message for people will be that Howard tried to ban the worm because he knew it would not go well for him. It will only serve to reinforce negative impressions. Rudd spent the day promoting his childcare package and released a new television ad focussing on climate change. While the Howard team tried - unsuccessfully again - to knock a hole in Rudd's tax package. At the start of week two things continue to look rosy for Rudd. revenge of the worm, (after the debate) 21/10/07Easy to see why Howard tried to ban the worm - it just doesn't like him. The debate is not a format that suits Howard. He has lost just about every one he has done and then gone on to win the election. In the scheme of things debates don't matter all that much. But this time around, coming from behind as he is, he really needed to do better. Rudd will be delighted with tonight. He looked a credible alternative leader and, with Howard on the back foot, he exploited the opportunity to restate his key messages to a national television audience. The fact that Howard had to use his opportunity for the last word to counter Rudd's attack on education demonstrates the increasingly desperate situation he now finds himself in. Howard attempted to make this an election about economic credibility in the first week. But Rudd has countered his tax package. And the real story today for me is Costello's failure to knock a hole in Rudd's plan. His attack this morning was unconvincing and easily parried by Swan. Howard's team would now be desperately looking for a new strategy. If they can't convince the electorate Rudd is econmoically irresponsible, and if the union scare campaign is not working, where do they go? The only new announcement from Howard today was $6.5 million for the Bradman Museum, apparently to create something in Australia as significant as the Long Room at Lords. There are many things you could say about an announcement like that - suffice to say I am confident it won't be an election winner. I stand to be proven wrong, and there is still five weeks to go, but I think Howard is dead in the water. Rudd has convinced people he has a plan and that he is a safe pair of hands. I struggle to see what Howard can do to overcome that. He will try of course. And he may go down some ugly and divisive paths in attempting it. But at this point I don't think he can win through his own initiative. His one remaining hope is that Rudd does something stupid to lose it. day six, all quiet 20/10/07A very quiet day in the campaign. Rudd was happy to let the coverage of his tax announcement run and was able to score some points from a report showing how poorly Australia's broadband network compares internationally. Howard was tied down in his own electorate. I think he will probably come out on top here in the end, but the time he will have to put in to do it will impede him in the broader campaign. At the end of the first week Rudd will be satisfied with his position. There have been no major stumbles and he has got the tax monkey off his back, at least for now. The poll movements were not significant. All Howard has achieved really is to draw back some of the soft Labor vote. And that has cost him $34 billion. But it hasn't delivered him any significant momentum. He desperately needs to land some heavy hits in tomorrow night's debate. Coming from behind he needs a clear win. The problem for him is that he doesn't have a great record in these debates even when he didn't have the weight of baggage he is now carrying. A poor performance could just about finish him. day five, rudd responds 19/10/07As predicted the first round of polls show a recovery for Howard, no doubt courtesy of his tax cuts. But certainly not a big shift and not enough to cause the Rudd team concern. But it clearly resolved them to try and close down the tax issue. The announcement was careful. In the context of a campaign he had to match the bulk of the tax cuts - even though I am sure he knows it is bad policy. But the switch in benefits away from top income earners to the middle and lower tiers is a strong point of difference. And the link to education at least tries to focus some of the benefits on worthwhile investment. He is still exposed here. Expect Costello to appear with some unfunded hole in Rudd's costings over the weekend. It is in Rudd's interest to move the campaign to some new ground. He has done the best he can to counter Howard on tax, but now he needs a big announcement of his own to emphasise a different vision for the future. Today's polling showed his theme of "new leadership" was getting traction. But he is still exposed to the Liberals painting him as not being able to offer new leadership and in fact just being Howard Lite. I anticipate the campaign gathering some real pace now. The focus is turning onto Rudd. The next couple of days are important for him. Day four, no-one is listening 18/10/07Coverage of the campaign began on page 6 of the Tele today, and on page 5 of the SMH. I'm sorry, but I didn't have the stomach to read the Australian so you would have to check that one for yourselves. But the point is the campaign is not the top story for people right now. The Ben Cousins circus, the dignified mourning for Trooper David Pearce and in Sydney the horrific murder of a young boy, are trumping anything Howard or Rudd has to say. The story about record low housing affordability was a bad one for Howard in today's cycle. But the low key start to the campaign is even worse news. He tried to ignite the campaign early with his big announcement, and the failure to pull it off would be causing concern. His campaign continues to look ragged. Hockey's comments today about the role of unions being over in workplaces were odd. If that's what you think how come you are trying to scare us about them? Bright news for Howard was the announcement by the disendorsed Labor MP for Corio that he would stand as an independent. And Rudd's concession to Howard's plan for a debate on Sunday night. But given the flatness of the campaign so far, Rudd still has the opportunity to use a big announcement to gain momentum going into it. He has to say something on tax soon - and before the debate. I think my tip for a big Rudd announcement on Sunday is looking good. And Rudd shouldn't push too hard for more debates. If he can come through Sunday without stumbling Howard will be the one who nees another opportunity. Being inside the Howard team right now would be a nerve-wracking experience I reckon. day three, what about interest rates? 17/10/07November 7 looms as an interesting day in this campaign with speculation about a further interest rate rise growing. It would be an unprecedented move for the Reserve Bank to raise rates during an election campaign. And the air of anxiety such a move would bring could as easily work in Howard's favour as it could for Rudd. The problem for Howard is that he is carrying a lot of baggage here after his promises in 2004. And I think the Liberal scare campaign on rates has been blunted. Costello stumbled awkwardly today when asked to back up the Government's specific claims that interst rates would rise under Labor. And Howard couldn't even remember what the current rate was. Given the big gun they fired on tax Howard should have the clear momentum at this point, but he doesn't. Rudd has still refused to respond. He looks calm and in control. He is taking his time to assess both Howard's announcement and the reaction to it. Having said all that, you can bank on an improvement in Howard's position in the next round of polls. $34 billion has to buy you at least a few new friends. But I don't think this will be causing too much concern to the Rudd team. They will be hearing the voices of concern from banks and economists about the inflationary impact of tax cuts and assessing their potential as ammunition. These are credible commentators. Rudd will match Howard on tax cuts, and may even be able to structure it for stronger benefits to middle income earners. And all the while he will add more announcements like todays about funding additional training and recruitment of nurses. Common sense proposals to invest in areas of real concern will resonate with voters as much as tax cuts. He hasn't fired his first big shot yet. His team will be assessing the best timing for it. My tip is Sunday. A good day for big stories and vital to take some momentum into the second week. In any event large parts of the country will be talking about nothing other than Ben Cousins for the next few days. This campaign is a slow burner. Rudd can afford to wait. day two, its all about tempo 16/10/07Howard and Rudd are each determined to set the tempo of the campaign, and the early stages are revealing about how each perceives their own position. Howard has launched into the campaign at full tilt spending $34 billion on his first announcement. A seasoned champion who knows his best days can only be seen in the rear vision mirror. He has launched an early charge to knock the new boy off balance. Rudd knows he is starting from a strong position. He wants an evenly paced campaign. Six weeks is a marathon not a sprint. Caution has to be his watchword because front runners have more to lose in a long campaign. His announcement today was really just a bit of a filler. What it did show is he intends to keep his nerve, and not be rushed off his tempo. Keeping a cool head in a campaign is vital but it is a careful balancing act to do that without losing momentum. Howard is desperate to draw him out. Ramping up the theatrics over the debate is keeping the pressure up, and he has positioned it well. Tax cuts have given him the upper hand. If Rudd refuses the debate and still hasn`t released an alternative it just looks like he is running away. And you can bet Liberal strategists see some potential there. It is a tricky one for the Rudd team. The weak point in Howard`s proposed debate is the venue. Could there be anywhere more remote from 'Howard`s Battlers' than the Great Hall of Parliament House? Footage of Howard lecturing an adoring crowd of hand-picked Liberals could reinforce arrogance and disconnection from working families. But only if Rudd can exploit it with an event of his own. Somewhere in suburban Australia. And he will need a tax announcement to go with it.top day one, howard`s tax splurge 15/10/07The first full day of the campaign had the obligatory posturing about debates, with Howard predictably and sensibly pushing for one encounter as early in the campaign as possible. Interesting to watch will be whether he needs to change tack on this. If the polling is still disastrous for him in four
weeks time, an extra debate might be attractive to force a Rudd stumble or emphasise one he has already made.
Remember Keating's last minute debate with Hewson in 1993.
Howard is coming from behind. He may need to ditch the standard manual. But he certainly used all the benefits of incumbency with his tax announcement. Rudd is on the back-foot here. His staff would now be doing some difficult and urgent number crunching on their costings to take into account the higher projected budget surplus. Knowing all the while it is the ultimate high wire act for an Opposition. Rudd has already stumbled on tax details once. Another slip here would be very costly to his credibility. But to his advantage is the possibility of a bit of immunity to the benefits of tax cuts amongst voters. There are not many people I talk to who think themselves much better off, overall, after the regular income tax cuts from Howard. Rate rises, fuel prices, rent increases. Tax cuts have barely kept pace. Maybe he has followed the fistful of dollars approach for too long. And I'm sure Rudd would be happier to have seen these numbers revealed today rather than late in the campaign. He has the chance to analyse it and respond. If Rudd can't do better than this he isn't trying. The way is open for some innovation and some tangible benefits for working families in childcare, education and health. It was Howard's move today. Predictable in content and bold in its timing. Let's see what Rudd does.top the campaign opener 14/10/07Outside the patient millions These words were written in 1987 by Billy Bragg in a song called "Ideology". They were written about a different country and a different government in different times. But gee they are resonating again to me today after seeing Howard and Rudd`s official campaign openers today. With the weight of unresolved issues 11 years in government brings you, and without much of a future vision, Howard is seeking out an old ideological battleground. It is a landscape littered with union bosses and black armband historians. And there is lashings of Labor policies that are anti-small business and soft on terror. The irony is that he has already destroyed this battleground. Its not there anymore. Howard more than any other Prime Minister has killed ideology. This is the man of practical policies. His highest vision is being relaxed and comfortable. He has done this so successfully I can`t see how he can convince anyone there are ideological battles still to be fought. Particularly when he is confronting Kevin Rudd, a political creature created out of Howard`s own dominance. Rudd spoke of education, hospitals, climate change and water, fair workplaces, and a sensible exit from Iraq. Rudd is practical in his approach and adressing the issues of immediate concern. There have already been two blow-outs in Grand Finals this year. Howard is going to have to do seriously better than this or he is going to deliver us the third. topjohn howard and reconciliation 13/10/07Howard`s positioning over the last couple of days has been revealing. His supposed conversion on reconciliation is clearly yet another desperate attempt to find the wedge. If you look at his speech to the Sydney Institute there is actually nothing there in his attitude that is new. It was about reconciliation on his terms which equates to assimilation. Aboriginal people conforming to what John Howard defines as Australian. And what is a referendum going to achieve? Didn`t we already decide that in 1967? Tinkering with the preamble will provide no improved legal footing for Aboriginal Australians. It will do nothing to improve their economic circumstances. Referendums are almost by their nature divisive. In proposing this referendum Howard is inviting a "no" case from Hanson and her ilk. And she has already been out there of course. In timing his speech just prior to calling the election Howard is wanting to make this an issue in the campaign, and not for the benefit of reconciliation. The day after his speech he made a point of coming out and emphasising that he would still not be saying sorry. Presumably because Labor has said they will. When I checked last night there were 546 comments in response to that article on the NewsLtd website. And of course, much of it was predictable. "The aborigines should be left to their own devices. They have proven to be mostly unemployable, demotivated, unreliable and lazy. We have thrown enough money at their industry" said someone called Tom. And from Billy, "When will aborigines take responsibility for their own lives without relying on the very generous handouts from us taxpayers. They should be saying sorry to me for misappropriating my income and spending it on booze and meat pies." These are the sentiments Howard is drawing out. What will a referendum campaign be like? And I repeat, what benefit will it bring for Aboriginal people or anyone else in this country? It will be interesting to see what Howard has to say on reconciliation after he calls the election tomorrow. top
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senate preferences Want to know exactly how preferences flow? Click here .............................. 7.30 report 20/11/07 KERRY O'BRIEN:You keep referring to 17 per cent housing interest rates when Paul Keating was Treasurer. You're less keen to talk about interest rates when you were Treasurer, the cash rate of 22 per cent. JOHN HOWARD: It was a cash rate - it wasn't a housing rate. It was a cash rate. KERRY O'BRIEN: That's correct. But isn't it true that at the same time when you were Treasurer housing interest rates would have been much, much higher for a part of that time even higher than 17 per cent with a cash rate of 22 per cent, if those housing rates hadn't been artificially capped by the Government at 13.5 per cent? JOHN HOWARD: Well, let's deal in what happened not in what might have happened if some other order had prevailed. ........................................ At the Institute we are torn between wanting Howard to get tossed out of Bennelong or winning there and being rolled by his disgruntled party in opposition. A tough decision. ................................ These Journos have picked the ALP to win. Some have been reluctant but nevertheless... Peter Hartcher- SMH. Alan Ramsey- SMH, Peter Corey -SMH, George Megalogenis- The Oz, Imre Saluzinsky- The Oz, Phillip Adams- The Oz, Glen Milne- Herald Sun, Jason Koutsoukis- Sunday Age, Shaun Carney- The Age, Rod Cameron-ANOP, Michelle Grattan- The Age, Simon Benson- Daily Telegraph, Jack Waterford- Canberra Times. No news from Shanahan, Akerman, Albrechtsen, any of the Divines, or Gerard Henderson. .................................. SMH 16/11/07 THE Coalition used a controversial grants program to make a flurry of election-eve handouts and has funnelled millions of dollars into projects in marginal seats against departmental advice, an audit has found. A scathing report on the Regional Partnerships Program by the Australian National Audit Office outlines a litany of grants made without proper paperwork or explanation, including many that were fast-tracked just before the last election. It found: The 10 electorates that received the most funding were all held by the Coalition. 55 per cent of 2004 election commitments went to marginal electorates. Of 43 projects that were approved despite the department not recommending to proceed, 38 were in Coalition seats. In a 51-minute spending spree in the hours before the government went into caretaker mode in 2004, the parliamentary secretary responsible for the program, De-Anne Kelly, approved 16 grants worth $3.349 million. ................................ michelle grattan The Age 14/11/07 KEVIN Rudd is minting coinage from both his past and his future. John Howard is weighed down by his longevity and trapped by his limited prospects. As this campaign nears its final stages, that contrast is intensifying... The contrast between the moods of the two men said much about the progress in the campaign. Rudd was relaxed, buoyant. At times when interviewed on radio, Howard was crabby and carping. ................................. caroline overington We declared some time ago that Caroline was a stooge for the Liberals and here is proof. Media Watch exposed her emails to a candidate asking her to preference Turnbull. Read here. ............................................ vote buying The Prime Minister's explanation for a policy commitment of $500,000 to aid Indonesian orangutans was that an 11-year-old boy called Daniel Clarke asked him to do it. "I thought, 'Gee if somebody is asking me to save the orangutans in the Wallabies dressing room, he's pretty resourceful'. I was really quite affected by it so I said to my staff we've got to do something about it," said the PM. The question inspired by the federal government's half million dollar pledge is not whether Indonesian orangutans are a deserving species. The question is: why are the rest of us being taken for monkeys? ...................................... red tapes strangling awa`s JOHN Howard's industrial laws were branded a shambles last night, with the revelation that half of all wage deals checked by the Coalition's workplace watchdog have failed the "fairness test" and been sent back to employers for correction. The Workplace Authority confirmed 26,833 agreements had been knocked back for failing to comply with minimum standards since the Prime Minister introduced the fairness test in May. The Australian 10/11/07 ................................. george megalogenis The Australian 10/11/07 OK, so now it’s the risk of higher unemployment. The Howard-Costello Government has switched its re-election plea for a fourth time in four weeks. From the promise of a full employment society, to the fear of a world financial tsunami, to the risk of higher interest rates under Labor, to now, perhaps most implausible of all, the threat that Kevin Rudd as PM would mean 400,000 people losing their jobs, despite what all experts agree is a ferociously tight labour market. .................................. the times 5/11/07 Blair 'knew Iraq had no WMD' TONY BLAIR privately conceded two weeks before the Iraq war that Saddam Hussein did not have any usable weapons of mass destruction, Robin Cook, the former foreign secretary, reveals today. Cook, who resigned shortly before the invasion of Iraq, also reveals there was a near mutiny in the cabinet, triggered by David Blunkett, the home secretary, when it first discussed military action against Iraq. Gee, do you reckon John Howard knew that? ................................ joe hockey In yesterday`s debate against Julia (6/11/07) said "you can`t believe anything they say." Then he proceeded to believe what Garrett had said. Huh? .................................... Snippet from a crikey cartoon: "We didn`t lie about interest rates and even if we did, it`s not our fault because we are such good economic managers whereas if it had been Labor governing it would be their fault because of the unions but it wasn`t so it isn`t. ....................................... piers akerman Is at it again. He has raised "the Heiner affair" once more in his column (7/11/07). He has been dismissed as being part of a right-wing conspiracy, but that doesn`t worry Piers. "His" truth must come out. Again and again! ................................ 2/11/07 Today's ACNielsen poll in Fairfax papers has headline two party preferred numbers of 55 to 45 in Labor's favour. Tuesday's Newspoll in The Australian had 54 to 46. Nielsen's primary support of 48 to 41 is almost exactly the same as Newspoll's (48 to 42), but Newspoll had the Greens on 4, Nielsen gives them 6. Nielsen includes Greens in their "which party will get your vote?" question, Newspoll doesn't. Nielsen prods respondents for two party preferred votes, Newspoll estimates them from primary support. But both this week's polls say the same thing: situation normal - a Labor landslide. ........................................... stephen mayne Standing against Peter Costello in Higgins. His video launch here. His website BBI: We`ve enjoyed Stephen`s contributions via Crikey but last night (6/11/07) we saw him on television and he is for work choices. Bloody hell, Stephen. ...................................... here`s a worry A straw poll by The Daily Telegraph has found many don't know what the Kyoto Protocol is. In the limited poll yesterday, 38 per cent thought the Kyoto Protocol was a treaty ending WWII. And in a disturbing finding, 14 per cent thought Kyoto was a Japanese banquet dish. Daily Telegraph 30/10/07 ..................................... joe hockey "I`ll go if IR laws stiffened" SMH 6/11/07  ............................. garrett`s gaffe The Australian loved it. The argument seemed to be that Garrett was so ideologically fervent he would have Australia sign any old treaty on climate change regardless of the company we found ourselves in. The government meanwhile was divided between those who want to sign Kyoto right now, despite the absence of major polluters - Turnbull - and those who actually don't think climate change exists - Vaile - and those who think God made prickly bushes - Costello. Thus did Labor demonstrate its unfitness for office. We don`t think so. ................................ glen milne The Australian 29/10/07 "In that context Howard needed to start this week well. And then along came Malcolm, once again in the middle of a dreadful muddle…" "Yesterday, though, Howard tried to launch into week three of the campaign with a strong performance on one of the Sunday political talk shows. Instead he was left raggedly defending both his Environment Minister and his own failure to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. " ........................................ michelle grattan 26/10/07 "They're a couple of ageing bloodhounds once again sniffing the scent of the old fox, knowing he's wounded, wanting to be there to assist in the kill. Bob Hawke and Paul Keating are in pursuit of John Howard …" ..................................... howard and costello Want to take credit for the booming economy, but take no responsibility for interest rate rises. Economy going gangbusters= mining boom primarily because of China. Interest rate rises= tax cuts courtesy of Costello, instead of putting money into infrastructure. Give us a break! .................................... mark coultan SMH 23/10/07 Laurie Oakes:"With a name like the National Press Club, you'd think it would be out there defending free press and the rights of the media. Instead, it rolled over, supinely, when John Howard said, 'You've got to ban the worm.'" "Press Club Chief executive, Maurice Reilly ducked the media yesterday. In a brief call he described himself as being in a "sea of lava" and referred calls to the club's vice-president, the News Limited columnist Glenn Milne." Gee, was Glen the person behind the attempted plug pull. ........................................ showstopper Remember the Nuclear debate? Kevin Rudd asked the Prime Minister during the debate. John Howard last mentioned those words on September 28. Maybe the thought of placing 25 reactors in different parts of the country was a liitle too much for the PM ............................... joe hockey is irrelevant "Asbestos disease sufferer and activist Bernie Banton has attacked federal Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey's comments that the role of unions in the Australian workplace is over." SMH 18/10/07 We reckon that the punters should remember who took James Hardie on. It was Greg Combet (one of the former union bosses who is being maligned in the Conservative Ads) with no help from the government. "The Government says that business can be trusted to do the right thing with this power. Tell that to James Hardie asbestos victims." from a speech given by Greg Combet 6/6/05 ...................................... work choices Government Ads top $121 million. John Howard has added the insult of wasting $121 million of taxpayers' money on Work Choices advertisements to the injury of lost wages and conditions under these laws. ....................................... love me or loathe me asks john howard? At the Institute we have had enough of him.John Howard, its time to go! ................................ paul kelly The Australian 15/10/07 "It is Howard’s last crusade. Diminished by longevity, burdened by his retirement pledge and, facing defeat by a younger opponent, Howard’s final appeal is for Australians to stick by his leadership and values. Yet his election opening gave few insights into how he can save his 11-year-old Government." "Howard runs on a “love me or loathe me” sub-text." ..................................... "THEY wouldn’t give us the vote because we were unintelligent, too emotional and couldn’t be trusted with money." "Now men are trying to deny female politicians the right to run the country because they’re too political, too consumed by the job and need a bit more humanity! "Health Minister Tony Abbott’s claim that Labor’s Julia Gillard lacks the life experience to be Australia’s deputy prime minister is as outrageous as it is hypocritical." The Daily Telegraph 11/10/07  Peter Costello thinks Julia was a commo. We think more a flower child. On Meet the press 21/10/07 MARIA HAWTHORNE, AAP: Miss Gillard, are you a Communist? ..................................... julia gillard On Meet the press 21/10/07 "But of course we know from the statistics that they (Work Choices) have hurt Australian workers. We know from the statistics that leaked out - Mr Howard didn't want you to see them - but those statistics that have leaked out showed that workers on Australian Workplace Agreements, some 44% of them, lost all of the conditions Mr Howard told them would be protected by law. Penalty rates gone, overtime gone, shift loading gone, public holiday pay gone and so on and so forth. So we do know that Australians have been hurt by these agreements. It's an instrument, this statutory individual contract, that the rest of the OECD doesn't feel the need to have." ................................ child care ..a Rudd Labor Government will invest $77 million to boost the quality of training and educational financial support for about 19,500 child care workers. This announcement builds on Federal Labor’s plans to:
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